Key points from the chart
- Each dot is one Premier League player season between 2017/18 and 2024/25, placed by non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes across and non-penalty goals per 90 up the side.
- A dashed diagonal line marks where goals equal expected goals. Green dots above it are players scoring more than their chances suggest; red dots below it are scoring fewer.
- The biggest over-performers labelled are Yoane Wissa (2024/25) and Gareth Bale (2020/21), both scoring more than one non-penalty goal per 90.
- Erling Haaland appears three times. His 2024/25 season has the highest npxG on the chart and sits close to the line.
- The biggest under-performer labelled is Gabriel Jesus (2018/19), far below the line despite a high npxG.
The non-penalty xG chart in text
Title: EPL 2017/18 to 2024/25, Non-Penalty Goals v Non-Penalty xG. Prepared by Chris Weatherspoon, @GameStateUK, with Game State and Premier League logos. Source: Opta via FBRef.
How to read, as printed: the horizontal x-axis denotes a player’s non-penalty expected goals per game, while the vertical y-axis denotes their non-penalty goals scored per game. Players positioned on the dashed diagonal line are performing in line with their expected goals tally. Players in green are over-performing their xG, while players in red are under-performing. The further a player is from the dashed diagonal line, the greater their over or under-performance.
Axes: Non-penalty xG per 90 (0.0 to 1.2) and Non-penalty goals scored per 90 (0.0 to 1.2). Most dots cluster between about 0.1 and 0.4 on both axes. A row of red dots sits on zero goals: players who had expected goals but scored no non-penalty goals.
| Labelled player season | Position on chart |
|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa (2024/25) | Above the line, top of the chart |
| Gareth Bale (2020/21) | Well above the line, top of the chart |
| Erling Haaland (2024/25) | Close to the line, furthest right |
| Erling Haaland (2022/23) | Above the line, upper right |
| Roberto Firmino (2022/23) | Well above the line |
| Diogo Jota (2023/24) | Well above the line |
| Liam Delap (2024/25) | Well above the line |
| Mason Greenwood (2019/20) | Well above the line, low npxG |
| Kevin De Bruyne (2021/22) | Well above the line, low npxG |
| Erling Haaland (2023/24) | Slightly below the line, upper right |
| Gabriel Jesus (2018/19) | Far below the line, high npxG |
| Eddie Nketiah (2022/23) | Below the line |
| Joshua Zirkzee (2024/25) | Below the line |
| Neal Maupay (2022/23) | Below the line, close to zero goals |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin (2022/23) | Below the line, close to zero goals, overlapping Maupay |
Qualifying criteria printed on the chart: 2017/18 to 2023/24, 900 minutes played and 30 shots; 2024/25, 300 minutes played and 10 shots.
What expected goals measures
Expected goals, or xG, gives every shot a value for how likely it is to be scored, based on past shots of a similar kind. Opta’s analysts give the example of a chance inside the box assigned an xG of 0.1, which means a player would on average score once from every ten such shots [2]. Opta’s model takes account of factors such as the distance and angle of the shot and the goalkeeper’s position [2].
Penalties are handled separately. Opta says penalties are the most consistent shot in football and are given a constant value reflecting their historical conversion rate, 0.79 xG [2]. Because every penalty carries that same high value, a player who takes a team’s penalties can build up a large xG total without creating many chances. Taking penalties out, as this chart does, compares players on open play and set pieces only.
Opta also warns that xG measures chance quality, not the expected result of a match, and that actual goals win matches [2]. A season far above the line can reflect excellent finishing, a run of luck or both, and this chart does not separate the two.
Notes on this infographic
- No values on the dots. The chart labels players but prints no figures for them, so the table above describes where each dot sits rather than giving numbers.
- 2024/25 was incomplete. The lower qualifying bar for 2024/25 (300 minutes, 10 shots) suggests the chart was made early in that season, so those dots rest on few games and are likely to move.
- Per 90, not totals. The figures are rates per 90 minutes played, so a player with fewer minutes can appear alongside a regular starter.
Questions about penalty xG
What is the xG of a penalty?
In Opta’s model a penalty is worth 0.79 xG, a fixed value based on the historical conversion rate of penalties [2]. Other providers may use a slightly different figure.
What is npxG?
npxG stands for non-penalty expected goals: a player’s expected goals with penalties left out. This chart plots npxG per 90 minutes against non-penalty goals per 90, so penalty takers are not given a boost by the fixed value of their spot kicks.
Sources
- Chris Weatherspoon, Game State, the maker of the chart (credited on the graphic as @GameStateUK).
- Opta Analyst, What Is Expected Goals (xG)?.
Last reviewed 30 October 2026
