Key points from the chart
- The chart compares real GDP growth in eight advanced economies and eight emerging market and developing economies, using the IMF’s July 2024 projections.
- India has the fastest growth of all 16 in every year shown: 8.2% in 2023, then a forecast 7.0% for 2024 and 6.5% for 2025.
- Among the advanced economies, the US grew fastest in 2024 (2.6% forecast) and Canada is expected to lead in 2025 (2.4%).
- Germany (minus 0.2%) and Saudi Arabia (minus 0.8%) were the only two economies on the chart to shrink in 2023. Saudi Arabia was forecast to rebound to 4.7% growth in 2025.
- China’s growth was forecast to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2025.
Advanced economies and emerging economies in text
Title: GDP Growth Projections. Subtitle: As of July 2024. Unit: % change in real GDP. The chart has two tables with the columns Country, 2023, 2024F and 2025F, where F means forecast. Cells are shaded from purple for contraction to bright cyan for the fastest growth. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2024. Footer: Voronoi, Where Data Tells the Story.
Advanced Economies
| Country | 2023 | 2024 forecast | 2025 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | +2.5% | +2.6% | +1.9% |
| Germany | -0.2% | +0.2% | +1.3% |
| France | +1.1% | +0.9% | +1.3% |
| Italy | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.9% |
| Spain | +2.5% | +2.4% | +2.1% |
| Japan | +1.9% | +0.7% | +1.0% |
| UK | +0.1% | +0.7% | +1.5% |
| Canada | +1.2% | +1.3% | +2.4% |
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
| Country | 2023 | 2024 forecast | 2025 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | +5.2% | +5.0% | +4.5% |
| India | +8.2% | +7.0% | +6.5% |
| Russia | +3.6% | +3.2% | +1.5% |
| Brazil | +2.9% | +2.1% | +2.4% |
| Mexico | +3.2% | +2.2% | +1.6% |
| Saudi Arabia | -0.8% | +1.7% | +4.7% |
| Nigeria | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.0% |
| South Africa | +0.7% | +0.9% | +1.2% |
What the IMF said in July 2024
Every figure on the chart matches the country table in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update of July 2024, titled The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot [2][3]. The IMF projected global growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, broadly unchanged from its April 2024 forecast [3].
For the United States, the IMF projected 2.6% growth in 2024, 0.1 percentage point lower than in April, and 1.9% in 2025 as the labour market cools and consumption moderates [3]. Voronoi’s caption gives the same reasons, slowing job growth and fiscal tightening [1]. The IMF revised India’s 2024 projection up to 7.0%, and Voronoi links that to rising prospects for domestic consumption [1][3].
The IMF said the outlook for emerging market and developing economies was revised up, powered by stronger activity in Asia [3]. For China it projected 5.0% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, slowing to 3.3% by 2029 [3]; Voronoi attributes that slowdown to China’s ageing population and slowing productivity growth [1]. Among the other revisions, the IMF cut Saudi Arabia’s 2024 forecast by 0.9 percentage points, mainly because of the extension of oil production cuts, and lowered Nigeria’s by 0.2 points after a weaker than expected first quarter [3].
Advanced against emerging economies
On the chart, the emerging group grows faster in most cases. Six of the eight emerging economies were forecast to grow by 2% or more in 2024, against only two of the eight advanced economies, the US and Spain. South Africa is the exception in the emerging group, with growth of 0.7% to 1.2% that looks more like the slower European economies.
The advanced economies are expected to converge. Six of the eight were forecast to grow faster in 2025 than in 2024, with Canada and Germany up most, while the US and Spain were forecast to slow. By 2025 every advanced economy on the chart is between 0.9% (Italy) and 2.4% (Canada).
Notes on this infographic
- These are the IMF’s July 2024 projections. The IMF updates its forecasts several times a year, and the actual results for 2024 and 2025 may differ from what is shown.
- The IMF presents India’s figures on a fiscal year basis rather than a calendar year [3].
- Growth is real GDP growth, meaning adjusted for inflation. It shows how fast each economy is growing, not how large it is.
Questions about GDP growth projections
Which major economy is growing fastest?
India has the fastest growth of the 16 economies on the chart, at 8.2% in 2023, with forecasts of 7.0% for 2024 and 6.5% for 2025. The IMF revised India's 2024 projection up to 7.0% [3]. The IMF presents India's figures on a fiscal year basis rather than a calendar year [3].
What is the IMF forecast for US GDP growth?
In its July 2024 update the IMF projected US growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025 [3]. The 2024 figure was 0.1 percentage point lower than in April, and the IMF expected slower growth as the labour market cools and consumption moderates [3]. The US grew 2.5% in 2023.
Is China's economic growth slowing?
Yes, the IMF forecast China's growth to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 5.0% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. It projected a further slowdown to 3.3% by 2029 [3]. Voronoi attributes that slowdown to China's ageing population and slowing productivity growth [1].
Which major economies shrank in 2023?
Germany, at minus 0.2%, and Saudi Arabia, at minus 0.8%, were the only two of the 16 economies on the chart to shrink in 2023. Germany was forecast to grow 0.2% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025. Saudi Arabia was forecast to rebound to 1.7% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025.
Sources
- Voronoi by Visual Capitalist, The Latest IMF Projections for GDP Growth (July 2024) (10 August 2024), the original post for this chart.
- International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2024, The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot (16 July 2024).
- International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2024, full report text, including the projections table by country.
Last reviewed 29 October 2026
