GDP Growth by Country, 10 Year Real Growth Estimates Chart

Key figures from the chart

India has the highest estimated growth, 6.3% a year over the next 10 years, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia at 5.5%.
Saudi Arabia (4.6%), Turkey (4.0%) and China (4.0%) complete the top six.
The US is estimated at 1.4% a year, the UK at 1.3%, and Japan and Canada at 1.2%.
Germany and Italy are the only countries expected to shrink, at minus 0.5% each, and Greece is estimated at 0.0%.
All figures are from the graphic, which cites Ray Dalio, The Great Powers Index 2024.

GDP growth by country, all 35 estimates

The graphic is titled “Major Countries’ Estimated Annual Real GDP Growth Over 10 Years”. Its note reads: “Ray Dalio assessed countries’ future economic growth using 81 indicators, including labor productivity, education, and debt obligations.” Countries are drawn as curved bars, longest first, with a flag at the start of each bar and bars coloured by region: Asia + Oceania, Middle East, Europe, Africa, N. America and S. America. A dotted line separates Germany and Italy, the two negative values, at the bottom.

Order on chart	Country	Estimated annual real GDP growth, next 10 years	Region (bar colour)
1	India	6.3%	Asia + Oceania
2	United Arab Emirates	5.5%	Middle East
3	Indonesia	5.5%	Asia + Oceania
4	Saudi Arabia	4.6%	Middle East
5	Turkey	4.0%	Middle East
6	China	4.0%	Asia + Oceania
7	Poland	2.9%	Europe
8	South Africa	2.9%	Africa
9	Russia	2.9%	Europe
10	Colombia	2.8%	S. America
11	Singapore	2.6%	Asia + Oceania
12	Mexico	2.5%	N. America
13	Chile	2.4%	S. America
14	Sweden	2.3%	Europe
15	Australia	2.1%	Asia + Oceania
16	Argentina	2.0%	S. America
17	Ireland	1.9%	Europe
18	Hungary	1.9%	Europe
19	Czech Rep.	1.9%	Europe
20	South Korea	1.8%	Asia + Oceania
21	Brazil	1.7%	S. America
22	U.S.	1.4%	N. America
23	UK	1.3%	Europe
24	Netherlands	1.2%	Europe
25	Japan	1.2%	Asia + Oceania
26	Canada	1.2%	N. America
27	Portugal	1.1%	Europe
28	Belgium	0.9%	Europe
29	France	0.9%	Europe
30	Norway	0.8%	Europe
31	Spain	0.3%	Europe
32	Switzerland	0.2%	Europe
33	Greece	0.0%	Europe
34	Germany	-0.5%	Europe
35	Italy	-0.5%	Europe

The footer reads “Source: Ray Dalio, The Great Powers Index 2024”, with the Visual Capitalist logo.

What the estimates measure

Real GDP is economic output adjusted for price changes, so it measures the quantity of goods and services produced rather than their money value. Nominal GDP can rise with inflation even when output does not, which is why growth forecasts use the real figure [4].

The figures are annual averages over the next decade from Ray Dalio’s Great Powers Index 2024 report [1]. Dalio’s firm, Economic Principles, publishes the related Country Power Index [3]. Visual Capitalist’s summary says India leads on strong investment, moderate workforce growth and low debt; three of the top five are in the Middle East, led by the UAE on high growth per worker; and the US is held back by debt of 265% of GDP across non-financial sectors, with government debt at 123% of GDP [1].

Europe at the bottom of the table

Europe has 17 of the 35 countries, more than any other region, and fills the last nine places, from Portugal down to Italy. The European average on the chart is 1.15% a year (our arithmetic). Poland and Russia are the highest European estimates at 2.9%, level with South Africa. Outside Europe, the lowest estimates are Japan and Canada at 1.2%.

Notes on this infographic

Forecasts, not results. These are one analyst’s 10-year estimates published in 2024. They are not official forecasts and actual growth will differ.
Countries missing from the data table. The dataset published with the Voronoi post lists 32 countries and omits Colombia (2.8%), Norway (0.8%) and Greece (0.0%), which all appear on the graphic [1]. The other 32 values match.
Ties. Several countries share a value, such as the UAE and Indonesia (5.5%) and Poland, South Africa and Russia (2.9%). The chart orders ties without explanation.
Data date. Visual Capitalist posted the chart on Voronoi on 18 September 2024 [1] and shared it on X on 26 September 2024 [2].

Questions about GDP growth by country

Which country is expected to have the fastest GDP growth over the next 10 years?

India, at an estimated 6.3% a year in real GDP growth over the next 10 years. The United Arab Emirates and Indonesia follow at 5.5%, then Saudi Arabia at 4.6% and Turkey and China at 4.0%. Visual Capitalist's summary of Ray Dalio's Great Powers Index 2024 report says India leads on strong investment, moderate workforce growth and low debt [1].

Which countries are expected to have negative GDP growth?

Germany and Italy, each estimated at minus 0.5% a year over the next 10 years. They are the only two of the 35 countries on the chart with negative values, and Greece is estimated at 0.0%. Europe fills the last nine places, from Portugal down to Italy, and the European average on the chart is 1.15% a year.

What is the expected GDP growth rate of the US over the next decade?

The US is estimated at 1.4% a year in real GDP growth over the next 10 years, 22nd of the 35 countries on the chart. That is just above the UK at 1.3% and Japan and Canada at 1.2%. Visual Capitalist's summary says the US is held back by debt of 265% of GDP across non-financial sectors, with government debt at 123% of GDP [1].

How did Ray Dalio estimate future GDP growth by country?

Ray Dalio "assessed countries' future economic growth using 81 indicators, including labor productivity, education, and debt obligations", according to the chart's note. The figures are annual averages of real GDP growth over the next decade from his Great Powers Index 2024 report [1]. They are one analyst's estimates published in 2024, not official forecasts, and actual growth will differ.