Key points
- The chart plots every NFL team’s actual 2024 regular season wins against the over/under win total set by Las Vegas bookmakers before the season.
- The Minnesota Vikings beat their line by the most: 14 wins against a total of 6.5, a difference of 7.5.
- The San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns fell furthest short, each 5.5 wins below their totals.
- The split is even: 16 teams finished above their total and 16 below. The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs had the most wins, 15 each.
NFL wins and losses 2024, the chart in text
Title: A comparison of NFL teams’ wins in 2024 to their Vegas over/under win totals before the season. Scatter plot: x axis “Preseason Over/Under Wins”, y axis “2024 Wins”, both from 2 to 15, with a diagonal “line indicating where O/U wins equal actual wins”. Dots above the line beat their total. Source: Pro Football Reference. Credit: u/JPAnalyst, @jaydpauley.bsky.social, @jaydpauley on Threads.
The table on the right of the graphic, in its own order, with 2024 losses added from the season’s final standings [2]. No team tied a game in 2024 [2].
| Team | Win O/U | Wins | Losses | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 6.5 | 14 | 3 | 7.5 |
| Commanders | 6.5 | 12 | 5 | 5.5 |
| Lions | 10.5 | 15 | 2 | 4.5 |
| Broncos | 5.5 | 10 | 7 | 4.5 |
| Chiefs | 11.5 | 15 | 2 | 3.5 |
| Eagles | 10.5 | 14 | 3 | 3.5 |
| Bills | 10.0 | 13 | 4 | 3.0 |
| Seahawks | 7.5 | 10 | 7 | 2.5 |
| Buccaneers | 7.5 | 10 | 7 | 2.5 |
| Chargers | 9.0 | 11 | 6 | 2.0 |
| Steelers | 8.0 | 10 | 7 | 2.0 |
| Ravens | 10.5 | 12 | 5 | 1.5 |
| Rams | 8.5 | 10 | 7 | 1.5 |
| Packers | 10.0 | 11 | 6 | 1.0 |
| Cardinals | 7.0 | 8 | 9 | 1.0 |
| Texans | 9.5 | 10 | 7 | 0.5 |
| Colts | 8.5 | 8 | 9 | -0.5 |
| Panthers | 5.5 | 5 | 12 | -0.5 |
| Patriots | 4.5 | 4 | 13 | -0.5 |
| Bengals | 10.5 | 9 | 8 | -1.5 |
| Falcons | 9.5 | 8 | 9 | -1.5 |
| Dolphins | 10.0 | 8 | 9 | -2.0 |
| Saints | 7.5 | 5 | 12 | -2.5 |
| Raiders | 6.5 | 4 | 13 | -2.5 |
| Cowboys | 10.0 | 7 | 10 | -3.0 |
| Bears | 8.5 | 5 | 12 | -3.5 |
| Giants | 6.5 | 3 | 14 | -3.5 |
| Titans | 6.5 | 3 | 14 | -3.5 |
| Jets | 9.5 | 5 | 12 | -4.5 |
| Jaguars | 8.5 | 4 | 13 | -4.5 |
| 49ers | 11.5 | 6 | 11 | -5.5 |
| Browns | 8.5 | 3 | 14 | -5.5 |
The Difference column is shaded from dark green (furthest above the line) through yellow to red (furthest below).
How well the preseason totals predicted the season
Asked whether Vegas “doesn’t have a clue”, the creator replied in the Reddit thread that the fit between expected and actual wins had an R-squared of 0.171 [1]. We get the same figure from the 32 pairs in the table. In plain terms, the preseason totals explain only a small part of how many games teams went on to win in 2024.
The totals were not biased overall. The 32 lines add up to 270.5 wins, against 272 actual wins, which is the number of games in a 17 game season for 32 teams. The misses were large in both directions, and they cancelled out.
Every win total on the chart matches the final 2024 standings [2]. The season ended with the Philadelphia Eagles, 14 and 3 in the regular season, beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on 9 February 2025 [2].
Notes on this infographic
- Which line. Preseason win totals differ slightly between sportsbooks and move over the summer. The chart uses the Pro Football Reference figures, which we could not open to check because the site blocked our request. The win counts were checked against the final standings instead.
- Regular season only. Wins are regular season games; play-off results are not included.
- Shared dots. Seahawks and Buccaneers (7.5, 10) and Giants and Titans (6.5, 3) sit on the same point and share one dot with two labels.
Sources
- JPAnalyst, [OC] A comparison of NFL teams’ wins in 2024 to their Vegas over/under win totals before the season (r/dataisbeautiful post and comments, opened 30 October 2026).
- Wikipedia, 2024 NFL season (division standings and Super Bowl LIX, opened 30 October 2026).
Last reviewed 30 October 2026
